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Excited to Buy This Year?

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Here’s What to Watch:

As we kick off the new year, many families have made resolutions to enter the housing market in 2019. Whether you are thinking of finally ditching your landlord and buying your first home or selling your starter house to move into your forever home, there are two pieces of the real estate puzzle you need to watch carefully: Interest rates & inventory.

(1) Interest Rates:

Mortgage interest rates had been on the rise for much of 2018, but they made a welcome reversal at the end of the year. According to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, rates climbed to 4.94% in November before falling to 4.62% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage last week. Despite the recent drop, interest rates are projected to reach 5% in 2019.

The interest rate you secure when buying a home not only greatly impacts your monthly housing costs, but also impacts your purchasing power.

Purchasing power, simply put, is the amount of home you can afford to buy for the budget you have available to spend. As rates increase, the price of the house you can afford to buy will decrease if you plan to stay within a certain monthly housing budget.

The chart below shows the impact that rising interest rates would have if you planned to purchase a $400,000 home while keeping your principal and interest payments between $2,020-$2,050 a month.

Excited About Buying A Home This Year? Here's What to Watch | Simplifying The Market

With each quarter of a percent increase in interest rate, the value of the home you can afford decreases by 2.5% (in this example, $10,000).

(2) Inventory:

A ‘normal’ real estate market requires there to be a 6-month supply of homes for sale in order for prices to increase only with inflation. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), listing inventory is currently at a 3.9-month supply (still well below the 6-months needed), which has put upward pressure on home prices. Home prices have increased year-over-year for the last 81 straight months.

Nationally, the inventory of homes for sale in the real estate market had been on a steady decline and experienced year-over-year drops for 36 straight months (from July 2015 to May 2018), but we are starting to see a shift in inventory over the last six months.

The chart below shows the change in housing supply over the last 12 months compared to the previous 12 months. As you can see, since June, inventory levels have started to increase as compared to the same time last year.

Excited About Buying A Home This Year? Here's What to Watch | Simplifying The Market

This is a trend to watch as we move further into the new year. If we continue to see an increase in homes for sale, we could start moving further away from a seller’s market and closer to a normal market.

Bottom Line

If you are planning to enter the housing market, either as a buyer or a seller, let’s get together to discuss the changes in mortgage interest rates and inventory and what they could mean for you.

 

Call me… and let’s get you a home in 2019!

carry-money-house     Kevin Gormanwww.KevinGormanSells.com

*Content supplied by KCM.com
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New Tax Code & Housing

In the final days and hours, the National Association of REALTORS® generated over 300,000 emails and telephone calls to members of Congress and held countless in-person meetings with legislators, all of which helped shape the final outcome of the new tax bill as it relates to housing.

This grass-roots effort was of significance to homeowners and the housing industry. NAR worked diligently with members of the House-Senate conference committee to help educate them on how to improve the final bill.

In the end, NAR saved the exclusion for capital gains on the sale of a home and protected the mortgage interest deduction for primary and secondary homes. Here is a summary of the results:

  • Capital gains exclusion. In a huge win for current and prospective homeowners, current law is left in place on the capital gains exclusion of $250,000 for an individual and $500,000 for married couples on the sale of a home. Both the House and the Senate had sought to make it much harder to qualify for the exclusion.
  • Mortgage interest deduction. The maximum mortgage amount for households deducting their mortgage interest has been decreased to $750,000 from the current $1 million limit on primary and secondary homes. The House bill sought a reduction to $500,000.
  • State and local tax deductions. Both property taxes and state and local income taxes remain deductible, although with a combined limit of $10,000. Both the House and Senate bills sought to eliminate the state and local income tax deduction altogether.
  • Pass-through entities. The bill significantly reduces the effective rate of tax on business income earned by independent contractors and income received from pass-through entities. This change will lower the taxes of many real estate professionals.

If you have questions, make sure you talk with your tax professional. Thank you for checking out this Fresh Blog. Happy holidays and CHEERS!

Santa's House

Sincerely,  Kevin                          http://www.KevinGormanSells.com

*This post is a summary of a 12/21/2017 letter to the NAR members from Elizabeth Mendenhall -President of NAR.

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Empty Pocket Syndrome

pocketsHome buyers that are not aware of how much cash they will need to complete their purchase could be exposing themselves to a financial disorder (that I just totally made up) called “Empty Pocket Syndrome”, or EPS. Symptoms of EPS include the cancelling of pizza and beer nights, more frequent attendance at Costco free sample booths and increased lottery ticket purchases!

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But seriously, below are the most likely expenses that buyers should include in their cost analysis BEFORE making an offer on a new home:

  • Loan Down Payment – The percentage of the purchase price that you can afford to pay at closing. Knowing what your other costs are going to be (as below) will help you determine how much down payment you can truly afford. This should be discussed very carefully with your lender and realtor.
  • Earnest Money – When you make an offer on a home you will also be required to deposit earnest money into escrow shortly after your offer is accepted. This money shows the seller that you are serious. The good news is that the earnest money is applied to your down payment at closing.
  • Professional Home Inspection – Home Inspectors charge varying rates. Many set their rates based on the size of the home. The average sized home in Oregon will cost around $400-500.
  • Radon Gas Test– Most real estate professionals now recommend a radon test for every home. The cost in our area is approximately $150 and many home inspectors are qualified to add this test to their inspection.
  • Sewer Line Scope –Sewer line repairs can be very costly and since the sewer line is buried, you need to have it checked. For approximately $125 the contractor will send a camera down the line and provide you with a “Pass” or “Fail” report along with a link to a video of the line. Don’t forget the popcorn when you sit back to watch this video.
  • Appraisal – Recently in Oregon the cost of a home appraisal has increased significantly. Check with your lender on this, but it could be in the range of $1000 or more.
  • Lender & Escrow Closing Costs – These costs can be significant. It’s important for buyers to work with their lender to get an accurate estimate of the lender and escrow closing costs before making an offer. The amount of these closing costs vary depending on the price of the home, the amount of the property taxes, insurance, closing date, etc. Check with your realtor and lender to see if it is possible to wrap some, or all of these costs into your loan.
  • Miscellaneous – This category will help you be prepared for any unforeseen or additional recommended inspection costs. I suggest buyers have a minimum of $500 factored in, just in case.

It’s still a fantastic time to buy, so GO FOR IT. But please avoid Empty Pocket Syndrome by working with your Realtor and lender to calculate how much money you will need…then go get some beer and pizza.  🙂

I’m not a doctor folks, but I can answer your real estate questions at  503-367-4869.

Happy home shopping!

             Kevin      Kevin GormanSells.com

Broker, Certified Residential Specialist –  Summa Pacific Cascade

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